Usually in this space I talk about something provincial, while there is always something to speak about provincially when it comes to politics. I decided this week to give my take on the federal NDP leadership which is happening in March in Toronto.
The leadership, of course, became vacant in August 2011 with the passing of Jack Layton. Layton, of course, was a name synonomous with the NDP over the past decade. The former city councillor in Toronto became the party leader in January 2003 and took the party from fringe supporters and 13 seats in the House of Commons to the historic 2011 federal election result which saw the party won 103 seats. In essence Layton became bigger than the party. I've often said if I didn't vote Conservative I'd vote NDP, a lot of that had to do with Layton, whoever becomes the new leader in March will have huge shoes to fill, here is my look at the 8 candidates who are in the running to become NDP leader and, in essence, leader of the opposition:
Niki Ashton: The youngest of the 8 candidates, Ashton has a strong NDP history. She has been a MP for the past 3 1/2 years and her father is a MLA (MHA here in Newfoundland) in Manitoba. She has a lot of support in the Manitoba legislature and the endorsements of 3 MP's. Ashton's been a vocal member of the NDP.
Prediction for leadership: Off on 2nd ballot will support Dewar
Nathan Cullen: Cullen has the most MP experience of any of the 8 leadership contenders. From watching the House of Commons Cullen's been a pretty good and fair MP in opposition. Despite this Cullen has no support in the House of Commons and limited support outside the House of Commons
Prediction for leadership: Off on 1st ballot will support Dewar
Paul Dewar: The MP for Ottawa Centre since 2006 is the 3rd candidate I'll profile today. The former teacher has been beefing up on his French which seems to be a must for a federal leader. He has limited but high profile support. He is out-spoken at times but I still see him as a solid contender for the leadership.
Prediction for leadership: Off on 4th ballot will support Mulcair
Tom Mulcair: Mulcair was actually the first NDP MP ever elected in Quebec in a general election. He was something of a political free agent back in 2007, I think he toyed with all 3 of the main federal parties but ended up choosing the NDP. Mulcair has the most support of any of the leadership contenders within the NDP caucus federally. He has the support of Dale Kirby within the NL NDP caucus. Mulcair is someone I have a tough time getting a read on and would probably be a lot like Yvonne Jones in his performance within the House of Commons as leader, should he get it.
Prediction for leadership: Winner
Peggy Nash: A well known labour figure in Canada Nash was first elected to parliament in 2006 but lost in 2008 and won again in 2011. She has the support of provincial leader, Lorraine Michael. Nash, to me, has been a strong performer in the House of Commons. She is seen as being a potential king (Or is it queen as she is a female) maker in the leadership.
Prediction for leadership: Off on 3rd will endorse Topp
Romeo Saganash: Even before the NDP support exploded in Quebec in the 2011 federal election Saganash was picked by many to win his seat. He is a well known Native Canadian. I haven't seen much of Saganash in the House of Commons to harbour an opinion on him but his experience in Native issues should be important for him. He has little support from his caucus colleagues though Christine Moore, a leading critic for the NDP, is supporting him.
Projection for leadership: Off on 2nd ballot will endorse Mulcair
Martin Singh: It seems every leadership has its token throw-in candidate. A candidate who has no chance whatsoever of winning, in this convention that candidate is Singh. He has no support at all from MP's or provincial legislators according to Wikipedia. Singh seems to be in this for the entire run but I expect him to be off rather early. I like him to run federally in a seat eventually.
Projection for leadership: Off on 1st ballot will support Topp
Brian Topp: There are many people who will tell you Topp is the favourite to win this. He certainly is a strong candidate and has the backing of Ed Broadbent (Up there with Layton and Tommy Douglas as the strongest NDP federal leaders). That said his lack of political experience could hurt him and if you are paying any attention to this contest, at all, you'll find out that his leadership run is not all that strong.
Projection for leadership: Off on final ballot
Ballot by Ballot:
Off On 1st: Singh who will endorse Topp, Cullen who will endorse Dewar
Off on 2nd: Saganash who will endorse Mulcair, Ashton who will endorse Dewar
Off on 3rd: Nash who will endorse Topp
Off on 4th: Dewar who will endorse Mulcair
Off on 5th: Topp
Winner: Mulcair
The author appreciates any and all comments on his blogs, he can be reached by email at tducey1@gmail.com
